Resilience of the Supply Chain Fluctuations in Delivery Times and Investments in Focus

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Supply chain fluctuations are a recurring feature of a structurally changing market. What matters is not only the reaction to longer delivery times but also the early assessment of their causes and effects. How? This article reveals.

For much of the past decade, procurement strategies for semiconductors were optimized for efficiency. Just-in-time inventory models, lean buffers, and tightly coordinated supply chains reduced operating costs and improved responsiveness. However, the experiences of 2024 and 2025 have highlighted the limitations of such an approach.

Instead of generally viewing extended lead times as a sign of shortages, they should be understood as risk indicators—sometimes systemic, sometimes category-specific, and sometimes limited to individual manufacturers. Correctly interpreted, lead time data, such as that contained in the quarterly Trendliner reports from Avnet Silica, becomes a planning tool rather than a source of uncertainty.

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Systematic Signals: What the Volatility of NAND Memory Reveals

The development of NAND flash memories over the past year is a clear example of systemic pressures as opposed to temporary disruptions. Demand for these products recovered throughout 2024 and accelerated in 2025, driven by investments in data centers, AI infrastructure, and memory-intensive applications. The resulting extension of lead times for NAND components was not the result of panic buying or sudden supply disruptions but rather an indication of a market where capacities had been deliberately restricted during the preceding downturn.

NAND production is capital-intensive, geographically concentrated, and highly sensitive to utilization rates. When demand picks up again, capacities cannot be increased in the short term. In this context, longer lead times are a structural signal that reflects the physical limitations and economic conditions of the supplier base and are not due to temporary inefficiencies.

For buyers, the takeaway is that diversification and strategic inventories are not defensive reactions but strategic assets. Where manufacturing capacities are geographically concentrated and can only be expanded to a limited extent in the short term, reliance on minimal inventories increases risk. The extension of lead times for NAND memory was therefore an understandable outcome of general market dynamics and underscores the need for procurement strategies that identify structural risks early on.

Strategic Inventory Management in Practice: The Case of SRAM

While the situation with NAND memory highlights systemic pressure, SRAMs demonstrate how early trend recognition can significantly mitigate impacts. In the first half of 2025, lead times for SRAM gradually extended, moving from a historically stable range of two to eight weeks into double digits. By the fourth quarter, lead times for many product lines had extended to sixteen weeks or more (Figure 1).

What is remarkable is not the expansion itself, but its visibility. The Trendliner data clearly indicated the turning point before the lead times had operational disruptive effects. Buyers who tracked the signals in the second and early third quarters were able to adjust their inventory strategies in time, secure supply allocations, or explore alternatives before components became further scarce.

The central shift in modern supply chain resilience is therefore the transition from reactive damage control to proactive planning. A strategic inventory management approach, guided more by trend indicators than headlines, enables companies to cushion fluctuations without resorting to emergency procurement or excessive markups. In this context, increasing inventory levels is a sensible optimization strategy.

Distinction between Market Pressures and Manufacturer Risks

Relevant in this context is the distinction between general market pressures and manufacturer-specific shortages. Not all lead time extensions have the same impact. Some reflect genuine capacity strain across an entire product category; others point to supplier concentration, gaps in the product portfolio, or operational disruptions at individual providers.

The Trendliner reports from Avnet Silica for the years 2024 to 2025 show increasing variations between suppliers within the same component families. In some cases, comparable parts exhibited very different availability profiles, indicating that risk was not evenly distributed. Buyers who interpret all lead time changes as market-wide signals risk overlooking these nuances.

Here, comparative analysis plays a crucial role. Understanding how lead times develop in comparison to competitors enables procurement teams to recognize when diversification, redesign, or supplier changes can effectively reduce risk. Viewed this way, lead time volatility becomes a diagnostic signal rather than just a simple warning.

A Constructive Outlook: Capacity Investments as a Pressure Valve

Although short-term fluctuations have increased, the medium-term outlook has developed significantly more positively (Figure 2). Investment data points to a renewed expansion cycle, with capital expenditures in the semiconductor sector expected to rise by about 5.1% in 2026. Importantly, these investments are not limited to incremental capacity expansions but are increasingly focused on the development of geographically diversified production capacities and more resilient supply chains.

These developments indicate that the current supply pressure is not a permanent but a temporary constraint. Once new facilities become operational, they will improve supply security and reduce the risk of excessive geographic concentration of individual manufacturing steps. Against this backdrop, the year 2025 primarily marked the transition between investment decisions and the ramp-up of new production capacities.

Inventory investments today serve a strategic purpose: They bridge the gap between constrained supply and future resilience. Instead of signaling pessimism, disciplined inventory management reflects confidence that today's volatility will be resolved by tomorrow's capacities.

Summary: From Uncertainty to Advantage

The evolution of just-in-time strategies does not mean abandoning efficiency but redefining it. Lead times are no longer just delivery metrics—they are signals indicating where risks lie and where planning needs adjustment. Interpreting these signals, distinguishing their causes, and acting early can turn volatility into a competitive advantage.

Viewed this way, the data from 2024 and 2025 makes one thing clear for 2026 and beyond: resilience is not achieved by predicting the next disruption but by recognizing structural patterns as they emerge. Strategies such as building close relationships with distributors and leveraging Avnet Silica's Trendliner support this mindset shift and enable buyers to move from reactive handling of shortages to targeted risk management. Ultimately, this can make the difference between a positioning that not only allows market cycles to be endured but also mastered with confidence. 

*Thomas Foj is Vice President Supplier Management, Solutions & Digitalization EMEA at Avnet Silica.