Study by Deutsche Bahn What Impact Do Autonomous Vehicles Have on Public Transportation?

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Deutsche Bahn AG

FAULHABER Drive Systems

Deutsche Bahn, in collaboration with KIT, ioki, DLR, and Prognos, published the study "Autonomous Driving – Key to the Mobility of Tomorrow," which examined the potential benefits of autonomous driving through various scenarios for 2045.

Autonomous shuttles and buses can improve Germany's public transportation (ÖPNV). This was highlighted in a study commissioned by DB Regio, the regional transport division of Deutsche Bahn. When deployed nationwide, autonomous driving would optimize service for passengers, reduce traffic congestion in cities, and better connect rural areas.

According to the study, there is little advantage in using the technology solely to enable autonomous operation of existing bus services. Privately operated robotaxis also bring minimal improvement—in fact, traffic in metropolitan areas could increase by up to 40 percent, and mobility in rural areas would not improve. The greatest benefit from autonomous driving, according to the study, would come when it is integrated into public transport, which is then additionally expanded and restructured. A key role in this scenario, calculated for 2045, is played by self-driving shuttles. They either take passengers directly to their destination or serve as feeders to trains and optimized bus routes, which would operate faster and more directly than today. "Autonomous driving is more than technology—it is an opportunity to design mobility efficiently and economically sustainably," emphasizes Prof. Meike Jipp, Division Manager for Energy and Transport at the German Aerospace Center, and explains: "Our research approach assumes that mobility is not rational but deeply rooted in routines and emotions. People only change their habits when the new offering is reliable, attractive, and fits into their everyday lives. The public-service scenario shows: With an integrated, comprehensive public transport system, we not only create greater quality of life—we also strengthen the German economy. Establishing a European market for autonomous mobility creates new, high-quality jobs and added value. The future of mobility begins in people's minds."

Significantly Reduce Travel and Waiting Times

If approximately one million autonomous shuttles and buses were in operation, the average waiting times for passengers before boarding would be 5 minutes in metropolitan areas and 13 minutes in rural areas. The latter would represent a 50 percent time savings compared to current waiting times. Travel times would be almost equivalent to those of private cars and, in some metropolitan areas, even shorter.

With such an offering – according to the study – significantly more people could be motivated to forgo their own car and switch to public transportation: The share of the total traffic volume provided by public transport would more than double to 35 percent.

Less Burden from Road Traffic

For society, the potential gain compared to the current situation would be enormous: traffic congestion in cities and metropolitan areas could decrease by up to 11 percent. At the same time, public subsidies for public transport could be reduced by 20 percent despite the massively expanded service offerings. This would be made possible through technological efficiency gains and increased user financing. According to projections for 2045, motorists switching to public transport would save an average of 170 euros per month. (se)