Robotaxis in China and the USA: Potential for Germany's transport system

Study Paving the Way for Robotaxis: A Look at Global Developments

2025-11-20 From Holger Holzer/SP-X | Translated by AI 1 min Reading Time

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In China and the USA, robotaxis are developing rapidly and becoming the core of new business models. In Germany, however, there is still only a tiny test fleet on the road.

The self-driving shuttle from Holon is starting in downtown Hamburg.(Image: Holon) — The self-driving shuttle from Holon is starting in downtown Hamburg.
(Image: Holon)

Autonomously driving shared taxis and shuttle buses could make public transport in Germany more flexible and affordable in the long term. However, clear political directives and investments are still lacking, a study by PwC Germany and the Institute for Mobility at the University of St. Gallen complains.

The study highlights experiences from the USA and China, where robotaxi services are already operating in regular commercial service. For example, the US provider Waymo records more than 250,000 rides per week across five cities, while the Chinese service Apollo Go has exceeded 11 million rides since 2020. In contrast, Europe currently only has smaller pilot fleets, typically with fewer than 20 vehicles, such as in Hamburg or Frankfurt. Large-scale projects are now needed to become internationally competitive, according to experts.

Lag in Software and Complex Approval Process

The authors identify key hurdles such as the need to catch up technically with software for use on public roads, complex approval processes, and unresolved liability issues. Additionally, there is an economic chicken-and-egg problem: without high production volumes, the cost per vehicle remains high, while operators are reluctant to enter the market without reliable funding. Furthermore, clear responsibilities and cooperation models between transport companies, municipalities, and private mobility providers are often lacking.

Moia has developed a self-driving van. But instead of offering driving services, the VW subsidiary wants to sell such systems. (Image:Moia)

Based on a financial model for a major German city, the study calculates that by 2047 around 20,700 robo-shuttles, 35,800 robo-buses, and 28,800 mini-shuttles would be needed to cover roughly three-quarters of today's bus demand in Germany. The investment requirement is estimated at around 5.7 billion euros (~$6.6 Billion). In the long term, however, the systems could save costs. By 2035, subsidies for buses could be reduced by up to 67 percent compared to today, primarily because driver costs would be eliminated. For robotaxis, kilometer costs are projected to be 50 to 70 percent lower than those of traditional taxis, depending on the scenario.

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Date: 08.12.2025

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