The development of quantum computers could pose a threat to current encryption systems as early as 2030. Here’s how this will happen and how you can protect your data in the future.
Public-key cryptography could be broken by quantum computers as early as 2030.
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Advancements in quantum computing have caused quite a stir in recent years. New records regarding the performance of quantum computers are continually being set, most recently by the company Quantinuum, which achieved a computing power that surpasses Google's Sycamore machine by a factor of 100. These developments could have far-reaching consequences—especially for the security of our digital communications
Leading experts consider it realistic that currently used public key cryptography (such as RSA and ECC) could be broken by quantum computers in the 2030s. In light of this threat, a fundamental re-evaluation of existing encryption systems is necessary. The introduction of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) has thus become a global cybersecurity imperative.
The Revolution of Quantum Computing
Quantum computers represent a paradigm shift in computing. While classical computers work with bits that can take on the value 0 or 1, quantum computers use qubits. Due to the principles of superposition and entanglement, these can simultaneously assume multiple states.
This allows them to perform a multitude of calculations in parallel. This capability enables quantum computers to solve complex problems at a speed unattainable for classical computers. The applications are diverse, ranging from medicine to artificial intelligence to materials science—and, indeed, in cybersecurity.
But this enormous computing power poses a threat to today's encryption systems. Currently, many common cryptographic algorithms, such as RSA or elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), are based on mathematical problems considered nearly unsolvable for classical computers. However, quantum computers could decrypt these encryptions in a very short time, which would endanger data security worldwide.
The Vulnerability of Today's Cryptography
The security protocols that protect digital information exchange today are based on the assumption that classical computers can only solve certain mathematical tasks very slowly or not at all. Quantum computers break this assumption.
Algorithms like Shor's algorithm could be used to crack these supposedly secure protocols in a fraction of the time a classical computer would require. This means that data considered secure today could potentially be decrypted with the development of quantum computers.
This threat requires far more than a simple adjustment of existing systems—it requires a profound change in the way we understand and implement data security. The time window for introducing new, quantum-resistant systems is becoming increasingly narrow. Companies and governments must quickly prepare for the upcoming challenges.
“Collect Now, Decrypt Later”
A particularly troubling scenario is "data harvesting," where encrypted data is intercepted and stored today. The goal is to be able to decrypt it in the future once quantum computers are sufficiently developed. Countries or actors engaging in this practice could accumulate vast amounts of sensitive information.
This practice not only poses a technical threat but also has profound geopolitical implications. Countries that are able to develop quantum decryption technologies early on could gain a strategic advantage by accessing information that remains closed to other actors. This development could significantly shift the global power balance.
This practice not only poses a technical threat but also has profound geopolitical implications. Countries that are able to develop quantum decryption technologies early on could gain a strategic advantage by accessing information that remains closed to other actors. This development could significantly shift the global power balance.
Post-Quantum Cryptography: the Path to the Future
To address the growing threat posed by quantum computers, it is crucial to switch to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) now. PQC refers to cryptographic algorithms specifically designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers. The development of these algorithms requires close collaboration between research institutions, industry, and governments.
The Key Steps to Transitioning to Post-Quantum Cryptography
Standardization: The development of generally accepted standards for PQC is of central importance. Institutions like the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) are working intensively on developing quantum-resistant algorithms. In August 2024, NIST adopted three encryption standards designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers.
Date: 08.12.2025
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Inventory and upgrading of existing systems: Companies should review their existing encryption systems to determine if they are still based on algorithms vulnerable to quantum attacks. A targeted switch to PQC algorithms should take place once these standards are established.
Research and development: Transitioning to PQC requires extensive research. New algorithms need to be developed and tested to ensure they are not only resistant to quantum attacks but also practical in real-world applications. Increased collaboration between science, industry, and politics is crucial here.
Political measures and regulation: Governments must actively promote the adoption of PQC. This can be achieved through legislative measures mandating the use of quantum-resistant encryption in critical sectors such as finance, energy supply, or public administration.
Education and securing skilled personnel: Building expertise in the field of quantum computing and post-quantum cryptography is crucial. Only with the training of a sufficient number of qualified professionals can the transition to new security standards be swift and effective.
Practical Steps to Mitigate the Risks
Besides the long-term transition to post-quantum cryptography, there are measures that companies and organizations can take immediately to mitigate the risks:
Forward secrecy: Using encryption protocols that generate unique keys for each session can prevent past communication from being compromised by the decryption of future keys.
Data minimization and limited retention: Reducing the amount of stored sensitive data and limiting its retention time can decrease the risk of these data being decrypted and misused in the future.
Strengthening network security: Robust security measures such as intrusion detection systems (IDS), secure communication channels, and protection against surveillance can reduce the likelihood of data being intercepted.
It is Time to Act
A DGAP study published in November 2024 shows that Germany is lagging behind internationally in PQC implementation.
Major German technology companies are lagging in the implementation of post-quantum encryption. However, there is also progress in Germany: In January 2025, the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) was able to certify a smart card for the first time, which implemented a post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithm. This is an important milestone for the practical implementation of quantum-secure cryptography.
The threat posed by quantum computers and the associated risks to data security are real and urgent. The transition to post-quantum cryptography is not an option but a necessity. Only through coordinated action on technical, political, and global levels can we ensure the security and integrity of our digital infrastructure for the future.
If we act now, we can not only protect the confidentiality of today's communication but also ensure the long-term security of digital systems in a world increasingly shaped by quantum computers.
*Eduard Serkowitsch is Principal System Engineer at Forescout Technologies.
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