Resource Scarcity Europe Faces A Structural Lithium Deficit By 2030

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A study by Chinese and Scandinavian researchers warns that, especially in Europe, there is no chance of satisfying the lithium demand by 2030. A massive expansion of extraction capacities will be necessary worldwide to achieve transportation electrification and climate goals.

The study "Long on expectations, short on supply: Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA" by Qifan Xia, André Månberger, and Debin Du from East China Normal University and Lund University highlights a dramatic discrepancy between lithium production and the fulfillment of the demand for the "white gold." If the trend toward electrification of individual transportation continues, with increasingly larger battery capacities, Europe in particular will have difficulties meeting the demand.

The authors present a clear picture: Despite a massive expansion in mining, domestic lithium production in all scenarios will not come close to meeting the rapidly increasing demand. Europe's production is expected to rise by 10 to 28 times (in the best case), the USA's by 6.7 to 17.8 times, and China's by 1.5 to 2 times—each measured from 2025 to 2030. Yet even these sharp increases are not enough; a global lithium deficit still looms. This forecast is based on reliable sources such as analyses from the International Energy Agency and other research teams who also warn of a raw material shortage.

Europe With the Largest Supply Gap

Even with maximum imports, the continent remains far from self-sufficiency, the researchers note. While China and the USA could partially stabilize their supply through increased production or more efficient batteries, Europe fares the worst in the model comparison. Particularly critical: as soon as other regions increase their imports, even moderately rising demands in Europe could lead to actual shortages. Without strategic raw material partnerships and alternative mobility concepts, Europe risks falling behind in the global competition for lithium.

Recommendations to At Least Mitigate the Impact

Accordingly, the study outlines three central strategies to address the impending lithium shortage: First, global production must be significantly expanded. Especially the USA could reduce its import dependency through faster approvals, new mines, and sustainable processing methods. In Germany, there are currently several pilot projects, such as those by Vulcan Energy and Neptune Energy, to extract lithium and lithium products from thermal water or deep water.

Secondly, the study relies on technological innovation. More efficient batteries, new materials, and processes like Direct Lithium Extraction could significantly reduce the raw material demand. Alternatives like sodium-ion batteries could also contribute to relief in the long term, although their breakthrough is not expected until after 2030.

Thirdly, the authors call for a societal rethinking: a mobility transition that does not solely rely on the 1:1 replacement of combustion vehicles with electric cars, but emphasizes collective mobility such as public transportation, carsharing, and shared charging infrastructures, could drastically reduce resource demand—while simultaneously alleviating climate, environmental, and infrastructure issues.

Notes on the Study's Methodology

The challenges sound dramatic, and the solution approaches are sensible. However, it must be noted what is missing in the study. In its current form, it only considers China, the EU, and the USA—a global inclusion would further increase the pressure on lithium supply. Additionally, China's role as a car exporter is not captured, which distorts the regional demand.

Short-term market reactions like price spikes are also disregarded, even though they could significantly influence supply and demand. Recycling and second-life use were excluded, even though their contribution will likely remain limited until 2030. Lastly, political or societal changes could dampen demand and alleviate shortages. These are scenarios that the researchers' models barely capture. (sb)

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