Hydrogen Infrastructures What infrastructures does the hydrogen economy need by 2050?

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Europe will have a minimum demand of 700 TWh of hydrogen by 2050. The steel and chemical industries will be the main drivers of the hydrogen economy, creating a high demand for imports and electrolyzers. To connect the separate centers of production, storage, and consumption, a Europe-wide pipeline network is needed. These are some of the findings of the current White Paper by the hydrogen flagship project TransHyDE System Analysis, coordinated by Fraunhofer IEG and DECHEMA e.V.

The researchers have examined the demand from industry, households, and the transportation sector. After 2030, significant cost reductions in green energy sources are expected, but these alone will not be sufficient to economically produce low-temperature heat, heat and process heat. Overall, the researchers have determined a minimum demand of 700 TWh of gaseous hydrogen for Europe and the UK by 2050. Hydrogen can only contribute to the energy transition if its availability matches the respective needs in terms of time and location. Hydrogen will mainly be needed for high-temperature- and energy-intensive process heat applications, as well as for feedstock in the industry and centralized power and district heating generation.

Steel and chemical production with high hydrogen demand

In the industrial sector, it is primarily the steel production and related high-temperature processes that account for a hydrogen demand of 200 to 300 TWh alone. The advantage is that the steel industry requires large amounts of climate-neutral hydrogen but can also flexibly switch to mixtures of hydrogen with natural gas, which helps with a continuous transformation.
 The chemical industry can also be an important driving force for the expansion of the European hydrogen infrastructure. Production of green ammonia or high-value chemicals requires large amounts of hydrogen. Co-coordinator Mario Ragwitz, director at Fraunhofer IEG, says: "However, it is uncertain whether the complete value chain from solar and wind power to hydrogen production and the production of various chemicals can be realized in Europe. Imports of intermediates such as green methanol or ammonia could reduce the demand for hydrogen in the European industrial sector. Therefore, these sensitivities were considered within the framework of TransHyDE."

The biggest uncertainty factor in the transportation sector is the competition between direct electrification and hydrogen fuel cell propulsion in heavy-duty trucks.

Transportation as the second most important consumer

The transportation sector is the second most important consumer of hydrogen. Co-author Christoph Nolden, Head of Gas, Hydrogen, & Material Infrastructures at Fraunhofer IEG, says: "International air and maritime transport depend on synthetic fuels based on hydrogen. This creates a hydrogen demand of a total of 450 TWh for green fuels in 2050. The biggest uncertainty factor in the transportation sector is the competition between direct electrification and hydrogen fuel cell propulsion in heavy-duty trucks. Various scenarios show an additional demand of up to 380 TWh in 2050 if 40% of heavy-duty trucks were equipped with fuel cells."

Hydrogen production in Europe

According to the researchers, hydrogen production in Europe depends on whether ambitious goals for the expansion of European wind and solar installations are achieved.The role of electrolysis in sector coupling will significantly develop during the market ramp-up, says co-coordinator Florian Ausfelder, head of energy and climate at DECHEMA e.V.: "Initially, electrolyzers will be integrated into clusters to ensure the secure and continuous supply of hydrogen for industrial use. Once the hydrogen infrastructure is established, electrolyzers can feed into the grid and provide flexibility in the power grid: Network operators can use electrolyzers to reduce the expansion needs of the power grid and thus reduce costs." It should be noted that green hydrogen may be lacking at the beginning of the market ramp-up to meet the demand. During this phase, alternatives such as blue hydrogen will have to cover the existing demand.

Transportation and storage of hydrogen and its derivatives

Co-author Tobias Fleiter, Coordinator of Business Unit Demand Analyses and Projections at Fraunhofer ISI, says: "Supply security and the transformation into a hydrogen economy also depend on the expansion of the corresponding transport and storage infrastructure. The modeling results show that a suitably dimensioned hydrogen core network enables the supply of hydrogen demand at minimal overall system costs." The core network can connect the potential renewable energy producers, especially in the northern and southern parts of Europe, with underground storage facilities and industrial centers in Central Europe.Co-author My Yen Förster, DECHEMA e.V.: "The repurposing of former natural gas pipelines plays a crucial role in the transformation of the German and European energy systems. The research results confirm that with this repurposing, supply requirements can be met in various scenarios. Imports from non-EU countries seem to be particularly competitive when they are tied to pipelines." Pipeline-bound imports could be made through the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). Imports of hydrogen derivatives or intermediate products, such as ammonia or sponge iron, are expected to be more cost-effective than their production in Europe.

Participating Partners

Contributors to the White Paper include employees from Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems IEG, DECHEMA Gesellschaft für Chemische Technik und Biotechnologie e. V. (Society for Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology), – Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Salzgitter Mannesmann Forschung GmbH, Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft FfE, Brandenburg University of Technology, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, VNG AG, Fraunhofer Institute for Factory Operation and Automation IFF, – DVGW Research Center at Engler-Bunte-Institut of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Fraunhofer Institute for Ceramic Technologies and Systems IKTS, Institut für Zukunftsenergie- und Stoffstromsysteme gGmbH, Technical University of Berlin. The TransHyDE flagship project is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.