Artificial intelligence AI could increase the amount of electronic waste

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If artificial intelligence (AI) spreads rapidly, a study suggests that by 2030, up to a thousand times more associated electronic waste could be generated compared to 2023.

However, the amount of waste could be significantly reduced through various measures, writes a group led by Peng Wang from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Xiamen in the journal "Nature Computational Science." The figures are based on model calculations that assumed a switch to newer computer systems every three years.

Large language models are used for AI applications like ChatGPT. "Large language models require substantial computing resources for training, which necessitates extensive computer hardware and infrastructure," the authors write.

Not just more energy and more CO2

Studies on sustainability have so far mainly focused on the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of AI models. Wang and colleagues, on the other hand, wanted to know the amount of electronic waste generated when computationally intensive AI applications are used in more and more areas.

The scientists use a scenario as a basis in which they assume the adoption of large language models for everyday use, as already seen in some search engines and social platforms. With such widespread AI application, the data centers for training and providing AI models would need to grow very rapidly.

As a result, the amount of electronic waste from discarded servers and other devices could increase from around 2,550 tons in 2023 to up to 2.5 million tons in 2030. In scenarios with less AI usage, the amount of waste could be limited to 400,000 to 1.5 million tons that year.

Great potential for reduction

The researchers also calculated how various measures could reduce the amount of waste. The most effective measure would be not to scrap servers and other devices after three years, but to use them for another year for simpler AI tasks or entirely different purposes. This would reduce the amount of waste by 62 percent compared to the baseline scenario.

If individual modules of the systems, such as processors and memory, were refurbished and reused, this could save 42 percent. Additionally, improved algorithms offer a savings potential of 50 percent, and more efficient chips provide a potential saving of 16 percent.

Smartphones and PCs are also included

The team led by Wang also refers to the recent "Global E-Waste Monitor." According to this, the amount of waste from smaller electronic devices, such as smartphones or personal computers, is expected to total a good 43 million tons by 2030.

The waste generated by AI servers and devices over the years, as calculated by the authors, could cumulatively amount to 5 million tons by 2030 in the baseline scenario, representing just under 12 percent of this quantity. Based on the study's most conservative scenario, the cumulative electronic waste generated by AI would account for around 3 percent of the electronic waste from smaller electronic devices.

More circular economy needed

Christiane Plociennik from the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) in Kaiserlautern pointed out that there is only limited data for the assumptions made by the authors in the baseline scenario. However, even the most conservative scenario with significantly lower waste amounts and the forecast of the "Global E-Waste Monitor" provided important reasons to establish a circular economy in information technology.

"We need to raise awareness in society that behind a cloud or an AI application there are data centers with high resource consumption," emphasized Plociennik. Reusing IT equipment should be preferred over recycling.