Global EV Outlook Forecast: 30 Percent of All New Cars in 2026 Are Electric Vehicles

The IEA forecasts a market share of around 30 percent for new electric vehicles in 2026. A main reason is the current energy crisis.

Following strong sales growth in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects further increases in electric car sales in 2026. The agency estimates that around 23 million vehicles could be sold, representing nearly 30 percent of all passenger cars sold worldwide.

For the "Global EV Outlook" forecast, the agency analyzed market and policy trends related to the adoption of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, as well as the impact of the increasing proliferation of electric vehicles on electricity, oil, and emissions.

In the current outlook, the agency provides data for the first months of 2026. Additionally, the report includes an analysis of the consequences of the war in the Middle East on policies and market developments in electromobility.

A Quarter of All New Cars in 2025 Were Electric Vehicles

In 2025, global sales of electric cars increased by 20 percent to over 20 million vehicles. This meant that one in four new cars sold worldwide was an electric car. In around 40 countries, the share of electric cars was at least ten percent. Chinese automakers supplied 60 percent of the electric cars sold worldwide, while European and North American manufacturers each accounted for approximately 15 percent of global sales.

Following policy changes in China and the USA, global sales of electric cars fell by eight percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. However, according to the IEA, this overall decline masked strong sales growth in many other countries and regions.

In Europe, sales rose by almost 30 percent year-on-year, in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, by 80 percent, and in Latin America by 75 percent. In March 2026, nearly 90 countries worldwide recorded year-on-year sales growth, with around 30 achieving monthly record sales.

The sales figures for electric cars reached new record levels in nearly 100 countries last year.

Fatih Birol, IEA-Executive Director

The agency's report concludes that electric vehicles are becoming increasingly competitive in key markets. This could boost demand, "especially among consumers concerned about fluctuating fuel prices," the agency writes. By 2035, the global stock of electric vehicles — excluding two- and three-wheelers — is expected to rise to up to 510 million. Today, the number stands at just under 80 million. The agency anticipates this increase even without new political actions to promote electromobility.

More Sales Also for Electric Trucks

The report shows that sales of electric trucks are also rising significantly, especially in China. Globally, according to the IEA, sales more than doubled by 2025 compared to the previous year, now reaching nine percent. Electric trucks currently cost two to three times as much as diesel trucks. However, according to the IEA, total operating costs are competitive in China due to falling battery prices and are also decreasing in other markets. In Europe and North America, sales of electric trucks also increased but at a significantly slower pace.

The IEA concludes that, according to current political regulations, electric trucks will likely account for at least 20 percent of global truck sales by 2035. China is leading the development, with its market share expected to reach 60 percent, according to the IEA. The most electrified segment of road transport, two- and three-wheelers, also continued to grow in 2025.

According to the report, the momentum of electromobility in Southeast Asia is particularly strong. Annual sales of electric cars in the region more than doubled last year, reaching a market share of nearly 20 percent. According to new forecasts, this share could rise to 60 percent by 2035, based on favorable price developments and corresponding political measures.

Some countries in Southeast Asia — including Vietnam, the largest market for electric vehicles in the region —  have already announced plans to expand or extend tax incentives for electric vehicles in response to the current energy crisis.

Record Exports of Electric Cars from China

China remains the world's largest production site for electric vehicles, manufacturing nearly three-quarters of the approximately 22 million electric cars produced globally last year. As production exceeded domestic demand, Chinese exports of electric cars doubled to a record high of over 2.5 million.

In 2025, the global fleet of electric vehicles avoided the consumption of approximately 1.7 million barrels of oil per day.

Global EV Outlook, IEA

Outside the three main markets for electric vehicles — China, Europe, and the USA — 55 percent of electric cars sold in the rest of the world were imported from China, compared to less than five percent just five years ago. China continues to dominate the supply chains for electric vehicles and will, by 2025, account for over 80 percent of battery cell production and even higher shares of the production of critical materials for electric vehicle batteries.

Energy Crisis Boosts Sales

"Sales of electric cars reached record levels in nearly 100 countries last year. The growing popularity of electric vehicles marks a significant shift in automotive markets and the entire energy system — and provides some relief in the face of the largest oil supply shock in history," commented IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol on the report. "Looking ahead, declining battery prices and potential policy responses to the current global energy crisis are likely to further boost electric vehicle markets."

In this year's Global EV Outlook, the IEA has included a special section on trends in automotive technology regarding software and artificial intelligence. The special section is complemented by updates to two online tools, including vehicle price data in selected markets and global statistics, forecasts, and policies on electromobility. — The full Global EV Outlook 2026 is freely available from the International Energy Agency.

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