New Study Electric Vehicles in Africa Are Likely to Catch On Sooner Than Expected

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ETH Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich

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A new study by researchers at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute in collaboration with various partners shows that electric vehicles could be economically competitive in many African countries before 2040: Electric vehicles could be economically competitive in many African countries before 2040. Provided that the charging infrastructure is specially developed and designed for solar-powered off-grid systems.

The number of vehicles in Africa is expected to double by 2050 - faster than on any other continent. The question is not whether mobility will increase. But how. A new study by researchers from ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in collaboration with African partners from Makerere University, the University of Port Harcourt and Stellenbosch University shows that electric vehicles, combined with solar-powered off-grid charging systems, could be economically competitive in many African countries well before 2040. "In many models, it was previously assumed that vehicles with combustion engines would dominate in Africa until the middle of the century," says Bessie Noll, research associate in the Energy and Technology Policy Group at ETH Zurich, which is headed by Professor Tobias Schmidt. "Our results show that Under certain conditions, electromobility is feasible sooner than many think." The study was published in the journal Nature Energy.

Solar Power as an Alternative to the Existing Power Grid

A central point of the study is vehicle charging. In many regions of Africa, the electricity grid is unreliable or non-existent. For this reason, 52 African countries and more than 2,000 locations were analyzed for a scenario in which electric vehicles are charged using specially dimensioned solar systems and stationary batteries - independently of the grid. What helps here is that the cost of solar power and batteries has fallen sharply in recent years. At the same time, more and more inexpensive electric vehicles are coming onto the market, especially from China. Motorcycles and e-scooters are now particularly economical. "We wanted to know what would happen if we tailored the charging system precisely to daily needs," explains Christian Moretti, research associate in the Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis at PSI. "The result surprised us: these systems are significantly cheaper than often assumed - and in many contexts even more reliable than the existing power grid."

Specifically, the calculations show: For a small car that drives around 50 kilometers per day, a compact solar system is sufficient. The costs for charging only make up a very small part of the total vehicle costs. For electric scooters and motorcycles, the switch is already worthwhile in many places.

No Single Continent

At the same time, the study makes it clear how great the differences are within Africa. In countries with more stable financing conditions, such as Botswana or South Africa, electric vehicles could become competitive sooner. In countries with high financing costs, such as Guinea, the transition is likely to be much slower. "Africa is not a uniform market," emphasizes Noll. "The framework conditions vary greatly, and so does the point at which electromobility makes economic sense."

Vehicles with Synthetic Fuels to be More Expensive

The researchers also compared electric vehicles with cars that run on synthetic fuels. These clearly perform worse. Even under very optimistic assumptions, such as production with particularly cheap solar power in Chile, the costs remain high. "Synthetic fuels are urgently needed in other areas, for example in aviation or industry," explains Moretti. "They are not a sensible priority for passenger transportation in Africa."

Financing is the Main Problem

According to the researchers, the biggest obstacle to electromobility is not the technology, but the financing. In many African countries, loans are expensive because investments are considered risky. This affects electric vehicles in particular because they have higher initial costs. "If you can reduce the financing costs, the transition will accelerate massively," Noll is certain. State guarantees, new financing models or international support are conceivable. Electromobility could also create new economic opportunities for Africa, for example through local assembly, new services or jobs along the supply chain.

What the Study Does Not Show

The analysis published in Nature Energy is deliberately based on a simplified scenario. The calculations did not take into account existing electricity grids, import duties, VAT or state subsidies. The aim was to initially compare the various drive technologies purely on a technological and economic basis. The researchers also did not model infrastructure issues, such as the expansion of public charging stations, or social and political factors such as import regulations for used vehicles in detail. "We first wanted to understand whether electromobility is fundamentally feasible and affordable," says Noll. "How individual countries actually shape this transition depends heavily on local framework conditions and political decisions."

How Does Electromobility Affect Public Finances?

A second study published in Nature Sustainability shows another dimension of the change. It examines the consequences of the global switch to electric vehicles for public budgets worldwide. Today, around 900 billion US dollars per year are generated worldwide from taxes on petrol and diesel. In many countries, this revenue finances road construction and the wider transport infrastructure. With the spread of electric vehicles, this revenue threatens to disappear. Low-income countries are particularly hard hit. On average, fuel taxes account for more than nine percent of total government revenue in these countries, which is significantly higher than in wealthy countries. At the same time, these countries often have less institutional capacity to introduce new tax systems quickly. "The transition to electric vehicles makes sense in terms of climate policy, but presents many countries with difficult budgetary issues," says Noll. Early tax reforms and international support could help to avoid financing gaps.

Together, both studies show that electromobility in Africa is technically and economically realistic. However, for it to realize its potential, a forward-looking policy is needed that takes a holistic view of energy, transport and financial issues. (se)