GSMA Study 6G Requires up to Three Times More Mid-Band Spectrum

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6G is expected to start in 2030, but the industry is already warning of a frequency bottleneck: According to a GSMA analysis, networks in dense urban areas of the 6G era will require an average of 2 to 3 GHz of mid-band spectrum, and up to 4 GHz in high-demand markets.

The study "Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity" primarily models dense urban networks. These areas already generate the majority of data traffic, and by the 2030s, bottlenecks are likely to occur if regulators do not open additional bands for mobile communications in time. In many countries, around 1 GHz in the mid-band has been identified for mobile communications so far.

More Data, More Users, More Spectrum Demand

By 2040, the GSMA expects more than 5 billion 6G connections. Concurrently, an estimated 3 billion 5G and 2 billion 4G connections will remain active.

Global mobile data traffic could reach 1,700 to 3,900 exabytes per month, according to the study's scenario, which corresponds to approximately 140 to 360 gigabytes per connection per month, depending on the assumptions.

A sample of ten countries shows that 83 percent of mobile data traffic occurs in urban areas, which account for only about 5 percent of the land area. In very densely populated urban centers, traffic density is nine times higher than in other cities and nearly 700 times higher than in rural regions.

According to the GSMA, these peaks can only be addressed through additional radio sites with significant investment. Therefore, additional contiguous frequency blocks in the mid-band are considered the most important lever for providing capacity.

The study calls for at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum per country to be actually in operation by 2030, not just planned on a regulatory level. Based on this, the industry concludes that an additional 1 to 3 GHz in the range between approximately 3.8 and 8.4 GHz should be made available. The GSMA names the following candidates, among others:

• Extensions around the existing 3.5 GHz C-band
• Ranges between 4.4 and 4.99 GHz
• Parts of the upper 6 GHz band

Upper 6 GHz Band in Europe's Focus

In Europe, the spectrum from 6.425 to 7.125 GHz is gaining importance. The Radio Spectrum Policy Group (RSPG) of the EU recently recommended prioritizing around 540 MHz in the upper part of the band, between 6.585 and 7.125 GHz, for mobile communications. The remaining 160 MHz in the lower section are initially intended to serve as a guard band and will be further defined only after the World Radiocommunication Conference WRC-27.

Mobile network operators and the GSMA view this approach as an important building block for a 6G roadmap in Europe. In contrast, associations from the fixed network and energy sectors as well as those from the Wi-Fi environment criticize that it leaves too little contiguous spectrum for Wi-Fi 7. They point out that a large portion of today's data volume in households and businesses is handled via Wi-Fi.

For device manufacturers, the debate means they must prepare for a more fragmented mid-band spectrum in the medium term. Radio front-ends and antenna designs will need to efficiently cover 3.5 GHz bands, the upper 6 GHz band, and other candidates, while coexisting with Wi-Fi in the same spectrum. Network-side complexity is also increasing, as 4G, 5G, and future 6G functionalities are expected to operate concurrently in the same areas.

Pressure on Regulators Until WRC-27

The GSMA views the current decade as a window of decision-making. The study's findings aim to guide regulators and governments leading up to the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027, where additional bands for the future IMT-2030 system—and thus for 6G—will be negotiated. Alongside new frequency allocations, the question of how long existing fixed and satellite services can continue to exclusively use certain bands will also be addressed.

(mc)

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